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急速赛车彩票官网开奖

急速赛车彩票官网开奖:10 minutes to see through China's economic trends: Who is the final winner?

时间:2018/5/23 19:34:35  作者:  来源:  浏览:0  评论:0
内容摘要:Looking back like it used to be: from 2014 to 2018\n? Today's speech is mainly divided into two aspects. First, talk about the current small...

Looking back like it used to be: from 2014 to 2018

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Today's speech is mainly divided into two aspects. First, talk about the current small cycle. Through the analysis of this year's situation, we compare the policies and economy of 2018 and 2014, and discuss how to look at the stock market, the real estate market, and the bond market. The second is to talk about the future big cycle. We predict that there will be more obvious differentiation and concentration in the future of companies, industries, and regions. The entire Chinese economy will enter a “core era”.

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First, the current cycle: the beginning of fine-tuning, 2018 will be the extended version 2014?

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In the past ten years, the law of the economic cycle has been very different from the past. Especially in the last five years, many people think that the economic cycle has disappeared. However, the cycle has not disappeared. After careful analysis, you will find the economy and finance since the 18th National Congress of the CPC. The cycle is still very clear.

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In 2013, the typical economy was overheated and the money market performed well. As a result, financial supervision strengthened and policies tightened. The consequences of the tightening in 2014 began to manifest itself. The economy has experienced a recession, the bond market has taken a turn for the better, and the liquidity has declined. Under the stimulation of the risk-free interest rate of , the valuation-driven SME board and GEM board performed better than the main board. From the second half of 2014 to the first half of 2015, with the start of a large monetary easing, two stocks of stocks will be plunged into the stock market in 2015. In 2016, the economy entered a phase of recovery, with commodities and real estate going. In 2017, the economy exceeded expectations and there were signs of overheating, especially for companies above designated size. This led to the beginning of the return of monetary policy to neutrality, the strengthening of financial supervision, and the end of the financial upcycle.

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Overall, economic policy has gone through three stages in the past five years. The first mention of three superimposed. Immediately after the 18th National Congress of the People's Republic of China, a three-stage superposition judgment was proposed, namely, the period of shift in growth speed, the period of structural adjustment and the period of prior policy digestion. Later, it put forward the "new normal" judgment. Finally, the 2015 Central Economic Work Conference formally proposed supply-side structural reforms. These three references have solved the problems of how to look, what to do, and the specific implementation path, so we can also feel that the policy is also a constant camera decision.

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The economic cycle has not actually disappeared, but it has become relatively passive. Compared with the past few rounds, the time from policy stimulus to economic rebound has been growing from two to three quarters to five or six quarters, and policy stimulus has been playing a longer and longer cycle. From tightening to recession, it stretches from one quarter to two or three quarters. This is mainly due to the change in market expectations and the “passivation” of economic agents’ responses to policies, but it is still cyclical.

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Now what cycle are we in? It looks like the eve of recession in 2014. In 2014, after we experienced the economic overheating in 2013, starting from the money shortage in 2013, real estate and finance tightened, the economy began to accelerate downwards, and the policies were forced to loose. In the first half of 2014, directional downwards were implemented. The quasi-heaven difference cut interest rates, and in the second half of 2014, the government began to lower its interest rate and cut interest rates. It entered a small round of loosening, and global quantitative easing continued.

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Looking back at the current situation, the tightening environment we have faced since 2017 looks very much like 2013 to early 2014, even worse than that. We have faced quadruple tightening for more than a year.

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The first is monetary tightening. Our monetary policy has been emphasizing soundness and neutrality, implementing a prudent monetary policy and a proactive fiscal policy. In December 2016, the Central Economic Work Conference adjusted the monetary policy for 2017: from soundness to sound neutrality. In December 2017, the Central Economic Work Conference remained stable and neutral to the monetary policy in 2018. Stability is the same old saying. Adding a neutral is actually not enough neutral before. The central bank's interest rate hike in the money market is implementing this tone.

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followed by financial crunch. Last year we wrote an article Ponzi financial collapse. Now look, all under the easing of monetary policy situation, there will certainly be assets side and end funds do not match, resulting in a variety of formats middle, model, business problems. A large number of mergers and acquisitions, and then financing, led to a large number of vacant funds. Bank hair financing, the people money into the pool of funds the bank, and then entrusted to professional organizations pipes, when professional institutions have found no way to guarantee return on assets when it bought some certificates of deposit or interbank rate of return Higher financial management. Therefore, it led to the disconnect between finance and the entity. The financial industry is called "over-prosperity." Since the first half of 2017, the China Banking Regulatory Commission has issued more than a dozen "golden signs". The China Securities Regulatory Commission has also issued a number of regulatory measures, including the recent new regulations on asset management. To sum up, it is necessary to eliminate excessive prosperity, return to the origin and rationality. .

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The third is fiscal austerity. There have been two rounds of financial austerity. One round is the management of platform companies and city investment companies. The No. 43 document of the Ministry of Finance has begun to diversify the financing of the platform. Later, with the promotion of the PPP model, local governments have found new financing models, and financial institutions have also carried out rapid promotion projects. However, most of them are not PPP in the real sense, which implies a lot of risks. Therefore, starting in 2016, the Ministry of Finance began to regulate the PPP model.

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fourth real estate crunch. Beginning 7 _ 89456 _ 54 _ 65473 _ 92016 of rapidly rising house prices, first north to Shenzhen and other cities, followed by Hangzhou, Nanjing and other "new first-tier cities," this year even spread to some of the four-tier cities, housing prices seems crazy story repeated in 2013. Prices in many places have doubled, which is certainly not a good thing. Of course, the policy will not be tolerated. Starting from last year's 317, various kinds of restrictions on loan purchases have emerged in an endless stream. The interest rate of on mortgages has continued to increase. Many places now All went up, and the tightening of property policies continued.

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At this time of 2018, the future economy seems to be unable to escape the general direction of 2014, but the rhythm will be different. The result is likely to be the elongated version of 2014. We predict that the economic downward pressure is not as large as then , should be the beginning of a fine-tuning, the policy level will choose the camera. From the perspective of this year’s reduction, I think that we should consider maintaining tight liquidity and moderating the degree of tightness in the market, and we should also consider the impact of hedging trade friction on us. We are not as determined and relaxed as in 2014. . So this is our basic judgment: 2018 is somewhat similar to 2014, but it will not be repeated in 2014. It is the beginning of a fine-tuning.

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What does this mean for asset allocation? Let's talk about market-by-market.

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First of all, the stock market is still facing pressure from leverage on the capital to leverage on assets. The so-called fund-side leverage is margin financing and and off-balance-sheet financing. This kind of leverage has been cleared in the stock market. At present, the ratio of the balance of the two financial melts to the market value of the A shares has decreased from about 4% in 2015 to about 2%. The pressure is now mainly on asset-side leverage. The improvement in performance in the first two years was mainly due to the price increase brought about by supply-side reforms and the increase in leverage of listed companies. However, this old road is now unworkable. On the one hand, PPI peaked. With the repair of the capacity gap, the logic of price increase is disappearing. On the other hand, mergers and acquisitions have become more and more stringent, financing has become more and more difficult, and the logic of extended expansion is also weakening. This is the so-called asset-side deleveraging.

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How to increase the leverage of the asset side: One is the stock pledge. In 2014, the repurchase amount of the stock-pledged repurchase business of the two cities was 0.34 trillion yuan, which doubled in 2015 to 0.71 trillion, in 2016 it was 1.28 trillion, and in 2017 it reached 1.62 trillion. With the impact of multiple factors such as new regulations on stock repurchase repurchase, restrictions on non-standard assets of bank investment and frequent occurrence of risk events, the pledge rate has continued to decrease. The second is the model of PE+ listed companies. In total, 311 listed companies participated in the investment industry fund in 2017, amounting to 365, an increase of 107.39% compared with 176 in 2016. With the introduction of the new regulations on asset management, banks’ financial management will gradually return to their original sources, and the multi-level nesting and channel services will be limited. This disguised leverage will also be difficult to sustain.

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From a structural perspective, the 2017 stock market is the spring of value investing. Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 The year-on-year increase of 25.08%, Hushen 300 rose by 21.78% throughout the year. The H-Share Index rose the most in the Concepts section to 48.16%. Maotai rose by 111.89%, its market value exceeded RMB 1 trillion, and it squeezed into the top four in the world. The value of these core assets is certain, but is it really valuable? In fact, it is also a kind of bubble.

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Foams of the past are manifested as the bubble of rubbish assets. The current bubble is reflected in the excessive premium of core assets. Doesn't it seem that it has turned from a shortage of assets to a shortage of funds? Isn't money less? In fact, this is not exactly the case. Although the capitalization of the entire market is shrinking, the asset-side contraction is even faster, which still leads to a structural asset shortage. The structural asset shortage leads to a structural asset fever, or core assets. foam. In the past, there was a global shortage of assets. All assets rose to the sky. Now it is a structural asset shortage. Although most of the assets have been reinstated, the core assets have been overly sought after and the core assets have become crowded.

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This may be the asset allocation logic for a long time in the future, but the focus of the core assets may be different in different short cycles. For example, last year was divided into two or eight or even nineteen. This year, it may change to the differentiation of March and July. We should pay more attention to the rising second-tier core assets.

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To recount the bond market, in the long run, the end point is a bull market, but the road is very tortuous. The best run in 2014 was the bond market, but this year is not the same as 2014. From a macro point of view, the economic downturn is not so great, the demand is not so weak, and the currency is not so loose, so the fundamentals of the bond market are not as good as that. From a microscopic point of view, the source of funding for the bond market cannot be compared with that in 2014. At that time, it was an asset shortage. A large number of institutional funds had nowhere to go and they could increase leverage. Now it is a low tide of funds, deleveraging, and microeconomic fundamentals. It is almost the opposite. And this year, there are problems with the pledge of shares of many companies, and the risk of credit bonds is still spreading.

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Besides the real estate market, the logic has completely changed after housing and housing are not fried. Now, instead of paying attention to the increase, we should also pay attention to stocks. It is unlikely that there will be global opportunities in the future. At the end of 2017, house prices in the 70 large and medium-sized cities increased by 5.6% year-on-year, with 0.7%, 4.2% and 6.8% in the second-tier, second-tier and third-tier cities, respectively. The increase in house prices has expanded from the first-tier to the second-tier to the third-tier. After entering 2018, the first-line housing prices have actually begun to adjust, and the next two and three lines also have pressure. The core reason is that the tightening of previous policies has already been put in place. Demand is definitely declining. We have seen a significant decline in sales volume.

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From a short-term perspective, mortgage interest rates are still on the rise in the midst of a tightening property policy. Next, when the economy is down to a certain extent, monetary and real estate policies may be hedonically relaxed, but there may not be a surge like 2015-17.

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From the long-term perspective, the central government has changed the regulation of real estate, housing and housing do not fry. The fundamental reason is that the fundamentals of real estate have undergone qualitative changes. The first is the population inflection point. After 2012, the aging of the population has intensified and the rigid demand trend has declined. The second is the turning point of the policy. It does not deny that there will be loosening in the future, but it must not be the big loose of 2009 and 2014 styles. It is stable and neutral, and housing and housing are not fried. Third, the market turning point, per capita housing has reached 1 set, incremental market to the stock market is an inevitable trend.

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To say something about the commodity market, I think there is a certain risk. In both short-term and long-term terms, our demand is weakening, and from the perspective of supply, the marginal impact of capacity reduction is also weakening. From the valuation point of view, the price of the commodity is because the financial speculation in the previous period is at a high level. In some markets, the most incomplete product is the commodity.

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Finally talk about the foreign exchange market, there is room for appreciation of the renminbi. The year of 2017 is a unilateral trend. The dollar was turned from depreciation to depreciation, the euro rose from devaluation, the pound sterling depreciated, and the renminbi depreciated. In 2018, when the global exchange rate entered a new round of repricing, the U.S. dollar weakened; the euro's volatility rose or rose slightly; the pound sterling rose; the yen depreciated; the personal feeling of the renminbi still appreciated: First, the Chinese economy is not weak, especially in the horizontal direction. Look. Second, capital flows have improved. In 2017, the difference between the settlement and sale of foreign exchange was correct, and the share of foreign sales and foreign reserves rose. Third, the dollar index weakened expectations. The United States expects to raise interest rates twice. If the economic fundamentals are not as expected after the rate hike, the dollar will be under pressure.

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Second, the future of the big cycle: the era of the core

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In the process of transforming the entire economy from total volume expansion to structural adjustment, in fact, not only the core of asset allocation is concerned, but also the ecology of the entire country is diverging, and both are focusing on the core.

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Core politics. The Party and the state agencies have made great efforts to readjust the reforms. Government agencies, party organizations, people's congresses, and the CPPCC have all carried out reforms and made unprecedented efforts. The central government has been fully upgraded, the leading group has been upgraded to the committee, the top-level organization has been normalized, and the state governance structure has undergone new changes. The main idea is to strengthen the core and strengthen the execution.

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The core diplomacy. The world entered the era of strong political man. Power figures successively staged the stage. The United States, Russia, Germany, Britain, Japan, and so on, some of them are in continuous power, and some style hawks. Powerful characters are characterized by their genius, and they will not play cards according to common sense. It cannot be understood as a generalized model for politicians. We have encountered considerable challenges in diplomacy, which are complicated and confusing, but the core is actually the relationship with the United States. We will continue to negotiate economic and trade negotiations with the United States next week. What kind of results will be discussed in the end will not be known, but I believe the wisdom of the Chinese leaders. In the long run, I personally feel that this is the last overtaking corner of the G2. The game between China and the United States comes early morning and late.

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According to the theory of comparative advantage in our traditional textbooks, China acts as a factory in the world, produces shoes and socks, and the United States produces aircraft cannons. But now China has become almost a versatile player - not only producing low-end industries, but also aircraft carriers. We have the most complete industrial and manufacturing base, and we have an engineer's bonus - China has the best engineers. From code farmers to senior engineers, China's science and engineering education is really good. We are narrowing the gap between medium and high-end industries and some high-tech fields and developed countries in Europe and America. At this time, the basic pattern of world economy and trade based on the original theory of free trade and comparative advantages was actually broken.

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The current situation in China and the United States is actually our greater reliance on the United States. In the game between China and the United States, we are more vulnerable. We must understand this reality in a pragmatic manner, and then come to think about changes. The United States accounts for a surplus of 49%, and many industries in China are difficult to import and replace. This is the problem we face now. The next decade is a peak of games and confrontations. The game between leaders of big powers has only just begun. We have had the privilege of being born in such an age and we can see you coming and going among political figures.

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The core industry. The hard core is mainly the development of high-tech industries, especially from the perspective of enterprises, the key is to follow the laws of economics and industry, and the state must guide companies to sing operas. Entrepreneurs are more aware of the industry and the future of this technology than the government. . In fact, we still have gaps in many industrial management concepts, brand management and world-class companies. To engage in business, you must rely on entrepreneurs.

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The meaning of the soft core is that demand drives production. China's per capita GDP reached the level of 8,600 US dollars, and entered a golden era of consumer upgrading. Upgrading has a lot of performance. The core word is that people’s yearning for a better life is our direction. For our future industry, it is actually very simple. The people’s yearning for a better life is the direction of our business and is the direction of our investment.

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The core technology. 2018 is the first year of core technology. The event of ZTE's reminded us of the need to vigorously develop the core technology. Although our high-speed rail is advanced, it still imports a large number of technical components and spare parts from abroad. China's UHV technology is relatively advanced, but the UHV power grid transmission process has too much power loss and has been highly controversial in the industry. We really lack core technology in some areas. The chip is just one of the microcosms. This leads us to reflect on what path we should take.

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The core business. The increase in industry concentration is in fact the differentiation of enterprises. Whether it is the traditional industry or the emerging industry, the head of the company has emerged. Regardless of the primary market or the secondary market, the characteristics of “strong and permanent winners, all winners” have emerged. The financial industry is a typical example, the threshold will be higher and higher, and small institutions will be increasingly unable to afford it. For a recent example, the CSRC's stock management opinions issued by securities companies require that the controlling shareholder’s net assets must exceed 100 billion yuan. There are few such enterprises in the country, and most of them are state-owned enterprises. Let's take a look at the main stockholders of domestic brokerage companies. There are few to be satisfied, and heading is an inevitable trend.

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The core entrepreneur. China has emerged four generations of entrepreneurs in the past forty years - 84 schools, 92 schools, 99 schools, and 15 schools. The 84 schools and 92 schools are in the early and early stages of marketization. They basically break through the system and are the first to eat crabs. The pattern is not complicated. The key is to seize the opportunity from 0 to 1. The 99 faction mainly eats the dividends of the Chinese economy from 1 to 100. Urbanization, globalization, industrialization, and informationization are all over the place. Grab one and you can become king. Recently, 15 schools are truly entrepreneurial enterprises. The rise of the mobile internet provides the technical impetus, and the financial system expands and transforms to provide financial incentives. In the future, more entrepreneurs will be born under the brunt of new finance and new technologies. At the same time, with the ebb of the financial bubble, there will also be a process of scouring the sand. Entrepreneurs in troubled waters will be eliminated and the market will be unable to raise them. The real core entrepreneurs will emerge.

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Core cities and regions. First of all, in terms of cities, statically, the most developed cities in China are first-tier cities. In terms of dynamics, the most promising potential for growth in China is a group of “new-tier cities” such as Hangzhou and Chengdu. Their development speed is very fast. There are several reasons for this. One is the development of the Internet and the second is the development of high-speed rail and aviation. Zhengzhou is a typical case. These places are all the province's power to develop this city. Therefore, the rise of the “new first-tier cities” is very large for the traditional first-tier cities. There should be a sense of urgency in the north and Guangzhou should be behind.

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Besides the regions, there are many regional strategies and there are many free trade zones, but I think the real reform and opening up is two, with Xi'an in the north and Hainan in the south. These are two incremental priorities personally promoted by the central government. Xion is to build a new model, a new experimental field, rather than a simple high-tech zone. Comparable with the Pudong and Shenzhen of that year. Hainan is the first provincial free trade zone. The goal is to create a free trade port. The target is Hong Kong and Singapore.

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The polarization between the future regions and cities will become more and more obvious. Practice has proved that the higher the degree of marketization is, the clearer and simpler the relationship between business and government, the more resilient it is. In the northwest and northeastern provinces, if we do not make a determined effort to promote the transformation of old and new kinetic energy, the gap will be further increased. This is actually of direct significance to our investment layout and industrial layout.

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Finally, to sum up briefly, the Chinese economy is in a historical process of differentiation and concentration. The core assets and core elements will become the final winners, and the speculative bubble will eventually be eliminated. China’s luck in the past 40 years is not bad. I believe that we have reason to be optimistic about the next 40 years. First, we have the largest consumer market. Per capita GDP ranges from 8,000 to 20,000 U.S. dollars, and the movement of third- and fourth-tier cities to first and second-tier cities will bring about epic consumption upgrades. Second, we have the best industrial foundation. The experience of the world factory is a valuable asset. The key is how we use it. Again, to the mediocre, this is the worst time, but for the wise, this is the best time.


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